NSEASI Closes Flat Amid Negative Market Breadth

Equities market closed today on a flat note, as NSEASI closed at 39,251.29 basis points as against -0.02% depreciation recorded previously. Its Year-to-Date (YTD) returns currently stands at -2.53%.      

Market breadth closed negative as UBCAP led 15 Gainers as against 21 Losers topped by CORNERST at the end of today’s session – an unimproved performance when compared with previous outlook.      

Market turnover closes positive as volume moved up by +68.73% as against +17.00% uptick recorded in the previous session. FBNH, ACCESS and UNIVINSURE were the most active to boost market turnover.  ACCESS and FBNH topped market value list. 

CORNERST leads the list of active stocks that recorded impressive volume spike at the end of today’s session.  

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Headline Inflation Will Slide Again in August 2021 to 16.8%

Nigeria’s headline inflation is projected to moderate further to 16.8% in August from 17.38% in July. If this projection materializes, it will be the 5th consecutive monthly decline and the lowest headline inflation level this year. The slowdown in inflation can be largely attributed to consumer price resistance and increased food supply due to the harvest season.

• Cross elasticity of demand: The difficulty in accessing forex has made manufacturers resort to local substitutes, thus reducing commodity supply to retail markets. For example, the supply of corn to retail markets reduced due to increased usage as a substitute for sugar in the production of ethanol.

Impact on Policy Making

The MPC will meet this month. A continued moderation in inflation and the spike in Q2 real GDP growth (5.01%) albeit due to base year effects will increase the probability of empowering the doves in the MPC to fight for a reduction in the MPR as a complement to the stimulus of the fiscal authorities to sustain the growth trajectory. However, indicators are pointing towards real GDP growth tapering in Q3. The Stanbic PMI reading, which is a forward-looking indicator fell by 5.78% to 52.2 points in August from 55.4 points in July. If inflation also reverses its downward trend in September due to persistent currency pressures, the MPC may be put on the spot and will have to make a hard choice.