Expectations from the Markets this Week – 290822
Powell sustains hawkish tone at Jackson Hole Summit, even as PCE Inflation moderates as expected
Official data shows that US inflation based on Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) moderated year-on-year to 6.3% in July from 6.8% in June. We had expected PCE inflation to moderate (although by less) following the decline in CPI inflation to 8.5% (also in July). US CPI inflation had declined on the back of a drop in gasoline prices although remaining at a 40-year high. The release of the positive inflation data coincided with warnings by the Fed Chairman that the Fed would have to maintain a restrictive monetary policy position to restore price stability. Speaking at the annual Jackson Hole Summit he stated that incoming data would guide the Fed’s decision. Meanwhile, Powell had, after the FOMC’s last meeting noted that another unusually large rate hike is likely at the next meeting in September.
Analysts expect UK Inflation to hit 14% by October as Ofgem raises energy bills by 80%
UK energy regulator Ofgem announced on Friday that energy bills would jump 80% to an average of 3,549 pounds starting from October. Russia’s continuous cut of gas supplies to Europe has driven wholesale gas prices to record highs. The UK has continued to experience a major cost of living crisis in the UK, as Inflation climbed to 10.1% in July and Analysts have said inflation could rise to 18% by January.
PMI slumps in Germany on the back of Falling Demand, Analysts expect inflation to hit 10%
Germany’s composite PMI fell to 47.6 in August from 48.1 in July. The data which covers up to two-thirds of the German economy suggests a contraction in private sector productivity. The contraction which is the second in successive months has been attributed to a combination of high inflation, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainty. While Europe’s largest economy struggles to avert a recession, Analysts have projected inflation rising to 10% on the back of gas shortage. Gazprom had on Friday announced an unscheduled three-day shutdown of a key gas pipeline from August 31.
China stimulates the Economy with an additional $146bn Amid Lockdown, Analysts worry about Chinese Inflation
China stepped up its economic stimulus with an additional $146bn to turbocharge the economy and curb the fallout of its property market crisis. The Chinese government outlined a 19-point policy package on Wednesday to prevent the world’s largest economy from a major slowdown. China’s growth outlook was downwardly reviewed by the IMF by -1.1% to 3.3% in July for similar reasons. Meanwhile,Analysts express concerns about the possibility of excessive stimulus which could be inflationary given the fact that production has slowed in China. China’s consumer inflation hit a two-year high(2.2%) in July.
N2trn Energy Sector Debt: Analysts See DisCos Reducing Demand from GenCos
At a recently concluded conference, the Association of Power Generation Companies refuted the claims by the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Company (NBET) that the Discos owed N500bn to the Gencos. According to the Association’s Executive secretary, Discos owed N2trn to Gencos, causing them to owe a sum of N1trn to their suppliers. Electricity Distribution Companies have been bedevilled with low tariff collection and illiquidity, threatening the entire value chain. We note that while the Gencos’ under-generation of power has typically been attributed to the relatively low transmission capacity of the national grid, distribution companies may have begun to pull back demand to limit their indebtedness.
FAAC shares N954bn for July, Excess Crude Account Gains 25%
The FAAC Allocation for July came in at N954.08bn, an +18.9% appreciation compared to the N802.41bn recorded in June. While distributable Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue fell by -8.5% from N193.82bn to N177.167 bn, Analysts attribute the appreciation in the FAAC to a +27% increase in statutory revenue compared to the June data. Meanwhile, the FAAC Allocation for July is the highest since January. However, the outlook for FAAC allocations appears bleak, as the future implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) would see NNPC remittances to FAAC decline.
NPA remits N78.5bn in H1’22, Analysts Worry about the Impact of a Global Economic Slowdown
According to official data, the Nigerian Ports Authority, NPA, generated total revenue of N172.3 bn from its operations in H1 2022. The NPA had recorded total revenue of N256.28billion in IGR between January and September 2021. Of the amount generated in H1 2021, N78.5bn went to the Consolidated Revenue Fund (CRF). It should be noted that over the five years 2017-2021, the NPA has remitted only N240bn to the CRF. Analysts note that Cargo and Container traffic has slowed because of global economic, and inflation worries, global reduction in purchasing power, and scarcity of foreign exchange.
Inauguration of NELMCO Board, Analysts Call for Aggressive Metering
Following the constitution of a 10-member board of the Nigeria Electricity Liability Management Company (NELMCO), Analysts have noted that the major challenge facing electricity distribution companies is the number of unregistered electricity users. According to the Association of National Electricity Distributors (ANED), only 47% of the 10 million registered customers were metered as of the end of 2021. Analysts are of the view that a more aggressive metering program would eliminate electricity theft and improve liquidity within the electricity value chain. In the communique of its July meeting, the CBN claims to have disbursed a total of N47.82bn for the procurement and installation of 865,956 meters across the country. While recovery rates have improved over the years in line with the adoption of cost-reflective tariffs as well as metering programs, Analysts believe the pace of metering has been lethargic.
Oil and Gas Sector
Global Oil Prices: Head or Tails, Nigeria Loses
Crude oil prices started the week negative as investors were concerned that aggressive interest rate hikes in the US would weaken the global economy, thereby cutting fuel demand and strengthening the dollar against other currencies. Oil prices, however, reversed their trend in subsequent trading sessions as Saudi Arabia warned that OPEC could cut output to correct the recent drop in oil prices. This situation further tightened the market and sent oil prices back above $100 per barrel in the week.
Analysts believe that major oil producers, especially OPEC, are comfortable with the higher oil prices as it aid significant revenue accretion, as evidenced in the Q2 2022 net profit of major National oil companies such as Saudi Aramco, Equinor, Petrobas, and ADNOC, among others. On the other hand, Nigeria is in a situation where both decreases and increases in oil prices have severe implications for revenue generation due primarily to petroleum product importation and the subsidy regime.
Analysts Review One Year of PIA vs FDI in the Oil and Gas Sector
A year after presidential assent to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, on August 16, 2021, Nigeria’s oil and gas industry is yet to get meaningful foreign investment. The last capital importation data released by the NBS revealed that the oil and gas sector reached a record low of US$0.61m in Q1 2022 compared with the pre-PIA value of US$57m in Q1 2021. Analysts attributed the unimpressive performance of the PIA to a lack of full implementation of the Act; regulatory shortfalls, evidence in the face-off between the ministry and the commission; industry operational issues such as oil theft and vandalism, and other fiscal uncertainties not yet resolved by the industry regulators.
The downside of Integrating Artisanal Refineries
Responding to the persistent calls to integrate artisanal refineries in the Niger Delta into the mainstream refineries to increase the country’s petroleum product supply, the CEO of NNPC Limited, Malam Mele Kyari, recently downplayed the calls. He argued that the call was baseless and unscientific. We believe the artisanal refineries receive stolen crude oil, processed through substandard equipment and operations, which degrade the environment. These, ordinarily, should be a sufficient deterrent from integrating them.
Furthermore, integrating the artisanal refineries into the domestic oil supply chain would require significant investment. If the government provides the money, it will create a cobra effect as more illegal refineries will spring up. On the other hand, private financiers may also be unwilling to finance such a massive upgrade. Nonetheless, analysts believe modular refineries are viable alternatives that need encouragement.
Proposed Gas Cartel: Likely Responses
As gas becomes an optimal product in transitioning to renewable energy, there is a growing consideration for a global gas cartel to control its flow in the long term. Analysts have expressed doubt about the buy-in of major gas-producing countries in the potential natural gas cartel being built by Russia and Iran. There will likely be stern opposition to a Russia-Iran-controlled cartel from the Western countries. Given Nigeria’s experience with OPEC, the country has no incentive to join a gas cartel except maybe to support the financing of its transnational gas infrastructures.
Rising Energy Prices Would Persist in Q3 2022
As a result of rising crude oil prices, net importation of petroleum products, and FX instability, Nigeria’s petroleum product prices rose between June and July 2022. The average retail price for Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) for July 2022 rose by +14.53% Y-o-Y and +8.03% M-o-M to N190.01 per litre in July 2022. The average retail price for diesel also increased by +208.74% Y-o-Y and +5.53% M-o-M to N774.38 per litre in July 2022, while the average retail price for Kerosene rose by +98.76% Y-o-Y and + 3.68% M-o-M to N789.75 in July 2022. Analysts expect prices of petroleum products to remain high throughout Q3 2022 on the back of rising crude oil prices, high freight rates, and FX shortage for importing the fuels. We believe domestic refining capacity can be improved in the short run through support interventions for domestic oil companies to build modular refineries.
Emergency Interventions Needed in the Oil and Gas Industry
Regulators, operators, and energy correspondents at a conference organized by the Association of Energy Correspondents of Nigeria (NEAC) have raised concerns about the rising scale of crude oil theft and high operating expenses. The low production volume and the high operating cost are twin problems affecting oil producers in terms of cost overrun and thin profit margin, as well as affecting the country’s ability to take advantage of the rising crude oil prices. While Nigeria is losing as high as 400,000 b/d to crude oil theft and vandalism, the cost of oil production in the country is also one of the highest among oil-producing nations at between US$15-17 per barrel. Comparatively, Saudi Arabia has a cost of production between US$4-5 per barrel. Analysts believe Nigeria’s oil and gas industry is bleeding from all sides and urgently need intervention. The industry requires emergency regulatory and supervisory interventions and full compliance with the provisions of the PIA to salvage the situation.
Brent had a weekly growth of +2.53% (see Table 1).
Gold dropped by -0.75% while Silver also dropped by -1.44% W-o-W (see Table 1).
Cocoa prices inched up by +2.03% W-o-W.
Corn prices inched up by +6.46% W-o-W and Sugar prices inched up by +1.82% (see Table 1).
Table 1: Commodity Prices
|Commodity||26-Aug-22||19-Aug-22||31-Dec-21||Weekly Chg||YTD Chg|
*Data for the 26th of August 2022 is as of 06: 41 pm (Nigerian Time)
Analysts Explain the Importance of Water Security to Food Stability
Food security has been prioritized worldwide as countries try to ensure that the domestic market supplies food products. Many countries have food strategies showing that food production is valued by the country and seen as a priority but do not publish a water security strategy. Water security is essential since it helps the Agricultural and other sectors.
The first step for countries achieving this security is to understand how much water is needed by industries and farms, then determine how much water is available for use. Countries experienced high temperatures this year, affecting food production and planting. Countries experienced drought this year, a situation caused by the high temperatures experienced this year, and evidence of how weather conditions cannot be determined or influenced. If water security is prioritized, infrastructures could be put in place to protect countries from the possibility of low food production, thereby preventing food scarcity.
Analysts Note that Higher Fertilizer Prices Force Farmers to Switch Crops as Rice Harvest Begins in Katsina
Fertilizer prices have been a problem for farmers globally, with many complaining of the high prices or availability. Russia, a major fertilizer exporter, had its fertilizer exports reduced since the war with Ukraine started.
This has caused a significant issue for economies depending on fertilizer imports from Russia. Dangote began fertilizer production in Nigeria but witnessed high demand from countries for the supply of its Urea fertilizer. With higher demand than supply, Urea fertilizer prices went up. Domestic Farmers were forced to investigate crops requiring lesser fertilizer usage, and some pivoted from legumes.
As Nigerian farmers struggled to get fertilizer at affordable rates, many moved to manure which later moved upwards. Some farmers in Katsina planted rice instead of soybeans or maize saying they found that rice needed a lesser amount of fertilizer than maize and generated higher revenue than maize grown on the same expanse of land. As harvest begins in Katsina, more rice will be made available to millers during the general 30-day harvest period. Analysts expect more rice to hit the market.
Analysts Look Into China’s Cloud Seeding Plans to Protect Crops and Reduce Drought
China is currently experiencing its highest heatwave since the country started recording the data 60 years ago. With temperatures reaching 45°C (113°F), concerns have increased as several provinces announce power cuts to cope with the increased demand due to people using air conditioning to cope with high temperatures. The heatwave caused wildfires in some areas forcing them to evacuate more than 1,500 people in the surrounding area. The country issued an alert urging the conservation of every unit of water to protect crops but has also turned to cloud seeding as a solution to the current challenge.
Cloud seeding is a form of weather modification to change the amount or type of precipitation (rain, snow, sleet, ice pellets, hail) from the cloud by dispersing substances (common chemicals include silver iodide, potassium iodide, dry ice, liquid propane) into the air that condenses the cloud which alters some processes within the cloud. The safety of continued use of this method has been spoken of as research confirms that freshwater animals would be severely affected. China would have to consider these when employing this method to prevent the negative effects of regular weather modification on terrestrial and aquatic life.
Analysts Assess Vietnam’s Rice Strategy
The Vietnamese government has issued an agricultural restructuring policy that changed the rice structure from increasing quantity to increasing quality. Statistics show that Vietnam’s quality rice seeds amounted to 35% – 40% of total rice cultivated in 2015; this has risen between 75% and 80% in 2020, while some places have planted almost 90% quality seeds. As the fourth largest rice exporter, Vietnam took in about $3.1 billion from rice export in 2021. Analysts observe that with higher quality comes higher prices.
Nigeria unveiled its rice pyramid earlier this year with about one million bags of rice on display. The message was that rice prices would fall in the domestic market with the increased supply. However, factors ranging from logistics problems to small and medium millers complaining of not getting the paddy for milling have prevented prices from dropping. Analysts believe that Nigeria could benefit from exporting secondary products. They observe that Nigeria could do well by gradually focusing on a narrow band of crops to scale towards global competitiveness. The approach would Follow Vietnam’s model of increasing quantity before focusing on quality for specific food crops, which could also benefit Nigeria in its quest to pursue self-sufficiency.
Sunflower Oil Production in Nigeria can Reap Rewards Say, Analysts
Oil is a significant component in cooking today, and sunflower oil is one of the oils used globally. The highest exporter of sunflower oil is Ukraine, which exports about 5.4 million tonnes of this oil annually, had exports interrupted because of the war within its borders. Nigeria produces about 250,000 metric tonnes of sunflower annually but is believed to attain 500,000 metric tonnes annually if more processing plants are available. With 26 states having the soil content required to grow this crop, stakeholders have called for increased interest and investment in the crop’s planting and processing. With Ukraine and Russia as the two largest exporters of sunflower oil, accounting for 52.03% of global sunflower oil production, the market is open for Nigeria to penetrate. After rising as high as US$ 2400 per metric tonne after the war, it has moderated to US$1490 per tonne with a +9% YTD. Ukraine currently accounts for 28.8% of global sunflower production
After dropping to a record low of 710/$1 in July at the parallel market, the intermittent supply fluctuations helped sustain the naira in early August. However, the depreciating trend resurfaced this week as demand for FX worsens with Airline’s inability to repatriate their earnings. As of Friday, it fell to 700/$1 at the parallel market. Analysts noticed that the official rate has begun to mildly reflect the FX pressure as the naira depreciated for most trading sessions this week despite the CBN interventions.
On Friday, the currency fell at the Investors and Exporter FX fixing by +0.30% week-on-week basis to settle at N430.33/$, and on Thursday at the NAFEX fixing (spot market), it depreciated by +0.13% to N428.44/$ week-on-week basis (see table 2 below).
Table 2: Naira/Dollar at the I&E FX Window and NAFEX Market
|Average Benchmark Yields|
The funding rate hovered around double-digit all week in the absence of any major inflows. At the close of trading on Friday, the interbank rates fell slightly. The Open Repo rate (OPR) declined to 13.50 by -7.98% (W-o-W) and the overnight rate (0/N) fell to 13.67 by -8.87% (W-o-W) (see table 3 below).
Table 3: Money Market
|Money Market Rate|
We expect single-digit figures next week with the inflow of FAAC allocation
Treasury Bills Market
Despite the selloffs all week, the Nigerian treasury bill closed slightly bullish on Friday. The average benchmark yield fell marginally by -0.12% (W-o-W) to 8.21.
Like the NTB market, the OMO bill’s closed bullish with the average benchmark yield declining by -0.19% (W-o-W) to settle at 10.35 (See table 4 below).
Table 4: Treasury Bills Market
|Average Benchmark Yields|
|T. Bills (%)||8.22||8.21||-0.12%|
|OMO Bills (%)||10.37||10.35||-0.19%|
We expect selloffs to continue next week as multiple corporate firms issue high yields of commercial papers
Nigerian Treasury Bill Auction
At the primary auction yesterday, the Debt management office sold an exact amount of N295.53 billion worth of notes offered; where the 364-day bill was oversubscribed by +6.14% while the 91-day and 182-day had less subscription of -30.34% and -5.08% respectively. The rates for the 91-day, 182-day, and 364 maturities rose by 50bps, 50bps, and 105bps to settle at 4.00%, 5.00%, and 8.50% respectively. The bid-to-cover across the three maturities were 1.76x, 0.93x, and 1.25x accordingly(See table 5 below).
Table 5: Nigerian Treasury Bills Auction Result
|Nigerian Treasury Bills Auction|
|Tenor||Amount offered (N’bn)||Total subscription (N’bn)||Amount sold
|Previous rate (%)
Source: Commercio papers
FGN Bond Market
The market moved bearish during all trading sessions this week with the average benchmark curve pivoting outward. On Friday, the average benchmark yield rose by 125bps (W-o-W) to 13.18% from 13.02% recorded last week (See table 6 below).
Table 6: FGN Bonds Market
|Average Benchmark Yields|
Analysts expect some buying interest next week as liquidity improves
Analysts Review Investor Interest in Alagbaka Power Limited
Alagbaka Power Limited issued a senior secured N4.2billion 7-year Fixed rate Bond due in 2029 with a 19% coupon rate. The Ondo state government secures the bond as the company has a 25-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) to construct a 4.5 megawatts Independent Power Plant to supply electricity to the state secretariat and other offices in Alagbaka. Given that, the state has pledged an irrevocable Standard Payment Order (ISPO) from its FAAC receivables with United Bank of Africa Plc to cover the payments for the 2.5MW electricity supplied during the duration of the PPA. The offer is ongoing and will close on August 30, 2022, with a “Bbb-” rating from Agusto & co. Investors can subscribe with a minimum of N10m and multiples of N1,000 afterward. Analysts expect the high coupon and lower risk to attract investors, as the coupon is close to the current headline inflation at 19.64%, with other secured bond issuances having lower coupons.
Analysts predict Rouble appreciation as Moscow exchange bans dollar as collateral
Moscow exchange introduced a new policy to ban the use of dollars as collateral to underwrite transactions that would come into effect on August 29. Previously, the exchange halved the use of the dollar as collateral on its platform from 50% to 25% on August 15th. The de-dollarisation in Russia began when western countries-imposed sanctions on the country which impaired Moscow’s access to international economic and global trading systems. Russia’s attempt to cut dependence on other currencies has positively impacted their currency, especially the payment for gas being done in roubles which have made it the best-performing currency this year. Analysts believe this outright ban would bolster more appreciation of the rouble as collaterals will probably be in the rouble.
Higher Yields on Ghana’s Treasury Bill Triggers Analysts’ Sustainability Concerns
Despite the downgrade of Ghana’s credit rating from ‘B-/B’ to ‘CCC+/C’ by S&P global rating, it indicated a negative outlook and higher risk. Analysts noticed the recent treasury bill auction was oversubscribed, with interest rates nearing 30%. The 91-day bill yield grew to 27.72%, and the 182-day bill increased to 29.29%. Although the yield is still below the current inflation rate of 31.7%, the excess subscription will be from foreign investors seeking higher returns. Analysts are concerned about the country’s debt sustainability as yields could continue to trend upward with heightened inflation expectations and currency depreciation affecting investors’ sentiment about the market.
Analysts curious about Sierra Leone’s currency Re-denomination
Earlier in July, Sierra Leone launched a currency re-denomination with the removal of three zeros from the notes and coins while keeping their value unchanged. The prices of all goods and services will be deflated as three zeros will be slashed while still maintaining the same purchasing power. According to the central bank governor, the re-denomination will boost the confidence of people in the economy and might enable the currency to appreciate against the dollar. However, analysts noticed the redenomination had no significant effect on the currency’s value. Leone has depreciated further after its adoption as current economic instability weighs heavily on the currency.
NGX – Listed Equities
- The Nigerian bourse ended the week on a positive note as market sentiment turned positive. The NGXASI closed the week with +0.63% gain as against -0.59% loss recorded last week. The Nigerian Exchange Recorded N168.02bn gain in naira terms.
- Year-to-date, the NGSAXI maintained its positive position to close the week with +16.31% gain as the market capitalization settled at N26.8trn.
- Sectoral performance across sectors was broadly negative. At the close of trading on Friday, Five (5) sectors closed positive while Ten (10) sectors closed negative. The NGX Insurance Index topped the gainers list chart with +3.88% gain WoW while the NGX Oil and Gas Index topped the losers chart with -4.19% loss WoW.
Chart1: Movement of NGXASI Index Points 15 AUG 2022- 26 AUG. 2022
NASD OTC Exchange – Unlisted Equities
The NASD OTC Security Index (NSI) and Market Capitalization closed the trading week on a positive note. The NSI and Market capitalization closed the week at 760.92 points and 1001.69 with a growth of+0.91% respectively (See table 7 below).
Table 7 : NASD W-o-W Change
|MKT Capitalization (Bn)||992.63||1,001.69||0.91%|
|Value Traded (000)||10,516,761.96||4,953,431.00||-52.90%|
Dangote And Elumelu Index
Dangote Index closed the week negative at 128.25 basis points from 135.11 basis points recorded the previous week, representing a decline of -5.08% WoW DANGSUGER, NASCON remained flat while DANGCEM recorded loss to close with -5.63% WoW (See table 8 below).
Table 8 : Dangote Index W-o-W Change
Furthermore, the Elumelu Index closed positive at 106.78 basis points from 106.53 basis points recorded the previous week, representing an increase of +0.23% W-o-W UBA and UBCAP closed the week positive with +0.70% and 1.27% respectively while AFRIPRUD TRANSCORP closed the week negative with -3.45% and -2.80% W-o-W and TRANSCOHOT closed the week flat W-o-W(See table 9 below).
Table 9 : Elumelu Index W-o-W Change