Expectations from the Markets this Week – 191222
UK and US CPI Data Suggest Falling Inflation, As Ghana’s Inflation rockets
Eurostat, on Friday, released CPI data suggesting that inflation in the Euro Area declined 50bp from 10.6% in October to 10.1% in November, with the highest contribution being from energy (3.82%) followed by food, alcohol, and Tobacco (2.84%) and services (2.84%), Analysts noted that the relative contribution of energy has reflecting lower energy prices. The ECB now expects average inflation of 8.4% in 2022, 6.3% in 2023, 3.4% in 2024, and 2.3% in 2025. US Inflation declined to 7.1% in November from 7.7% in October, further encouraging the Fed to slow down the pace of rate hikes. The country’s inflation slowed on the back of lower energy costs, just as the cost of used cars, medical care, and airfare dropped. The cost of housing however curiously remained high.
On the African continent, Official data suggests that Ghana’s inflation surged to 50.3% in November up from 40.4% in October, the West African country has seen domestic inflation surge from 13% in January on the back of a weakening cedis. The data came one day after the country sealed a $3bn.
Central Banks Moderate Rate Hikes
In a three-way split vote, members of the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Thursday, voted to raise the base lending rate by 50bp to 3.5%. This was in line with the expectation of analysts who had projected that the bank would conduct further rate hikes following the Labour market data release which showed that the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% in the three months to October, up from 3.6% in the three months to September. As such analysts expected a rate hike and this was despite the BoE’s recent admittance that the economy is about to enter a prolonged recession. The expectation that skill shortage would continue to push wages higher, with implications for inflation, also meant that another rate hike was inevitable.
In the US, the Federal Open Market Committee had expectedly voted to raise rates by 50bp to 4.25%, signaling a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. Earlier this month, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell had said that the bank would start to move less aggressively following the moderation in inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) also opted for a smaller rate hike at its Thursday meeting, taking its key rate from 1.5% to 2%. Nevertheless, the widely expected 50 basis point rate rise is the central bank’s fourth increase this year. It had hiked by 75bp in October and 50bp in July, bringing rates out of the negative territory for the first time since 2014.
US-Africa Summit: US commits to Africa’s Economic Fortunes
The US-Africa leaders’ summit which was held in Washington DC, between December 13 and 15, saw the US committed to deepening trade and investment ties with African countries. In his speech on Wednesday, the US president mentioned a $500m investment to reduce transport costs at a key West African Port in Benin. The US is also billed to sign a memorandum with the African Continental Free Trade Area, an initiative that would unlock new opportunities for trade and investment. The US President also announced a $350m investment aimed at boosting the digital economy while also stating that $15bn worth of deals had been struck at the US Africa Business Forum. Overall, the discussions at the event centered around existing programs such as Prosper Africa, a US government initiative to increase two-way trade between Africa and the US, as well as the Clinton Era Africa Growth Act which provides African apparel manufacturers preferential access to the US market. The deliberations also considered the Power Africa Initiative launched by President Obama to connect millions of Africans to the grid. Analysts while recognizing the potential gains in the US -Africa Summit say that the subtext which must not be ignored is that the US is playing catch up with the likes of Russia and especially China which has developed strong ties with Africa through its Belt and Road Initiative.
Weekly Preview of the Global Economy
It would be the turn of the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) to decide on the one and five-year Loan Prime Rates on Tuesday. Four weeks ago, the bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged making the third straight time. If the PBoC considers the weakening yuan and persistent capital outflows, it would not ease monetary conditions, but the country’s grim growth outlook has prompted some market analysts to project a marginal reduction to the mortgage reference rate (five-year LPR) next week to prop up the economy.
On Thursday, the final estimate of the UK’s Q3 GDP growth figures is due for release, Analysts pencil in a 2.4% growth projection. Also, next week, Consumer confidence data and Current account Data in the US would further provide insight into the state of the world’s largest economy.
Nigeria’s Inflation rises to 21.47%, is Monetary Policy Tightening Working?
According to the November 2022, CPI Report published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Inflation inched up to 21.47% in November beating Analysts’ predictions. Economists had forecast headline inflation to rise a tad in November to keep the pace of price growth at a 17-year high but also reflecting the impact of the aggressive monetary policy tightening conducted by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). On the contrary, month-on-month inflation rose for the first time since July hitting 1.39%, 5bp up from the 1.24% recorded in October. Food Inflation rose 40bp to hit 24.13% reflecting the impact of the flash floods which affected 30 of the 36 states of the federation. Analysts say that Transport costs rose fastest in November (1.67% m-o-m) while the cost of Education (1.63% m-o-m) and Health Care (1.48% m-o-m) also rose in the one-month period.
Analysts say that harvests of rice, beans, garri, and other staples were affected by the nationwide flood while the scarcity of fuel caused by FX and logistical challenges at the end of Marketers imposed a major upward pressure on prices across the board in November. The MPC had held its final meeting for the year in November at which event it unanimously decided to raise rates by another 100bp bringing the reference rate to 16.5% after a total of 500bp rate hike since May. With inflation rising 375bp over the same period, Analysts recommend that Monetary policy be complemented with the right set of fiscal and structural policies to address the structural challenges inducing supply shocks.
Experts Propose National Asset Financialization as FDI drops by 59% in 11 years
In its recently released International Debt Report, the World Bank has attributed the sharp decline in Nigeria’s Foreign Direct Capital (FDI) from $5.97bn in 2010 to $2.45bn in 2021 to the security situation in the country. FDIs, the more permanent form of capital, require political and economic stability. The lack thereof in the Nigerian case has meant that Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) has been the dominant form of foreign investment. FPIs, by their nature, are impermanent and impatient and cannot support sustainable growth. Analysts say that the country’s security situation and policy consistency must be a priority for the government to attract FDI.
Experts also noted that a deliberate National Asset Financialization policy is necessary to launch several Mergers and Acquisition deals in government-owned assets, an idea that can boost FDI. Also, the government needs to consider issuing new licenses for greenfield investment in government-controlled sectors. These would not only support external sector liquidity and address the country’s lingering FX supply challenge but also help address the government’s fiscal challenges. Analysts cite the example of Saudi Arabia, which opened investment opportunities in 16 different sectors through its 2030 National Transformation Plan in 2017, seeking $200bn in FDI. Brazil, India, and China have adopted the same initiatives, significantly improving their FDI flows. In its case, Nigeria secured only six deals between 2016 and 2019, with minimal gains for the country by way of FDI flows
Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF) Could Expand Nigeria’s Blue Economy
As part of the country’s coastal and inland shipping policy, President Muhammadu Buhari has approved the immediate disbursement of the $350m and N60bn Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF) through five Nigerian banks, namely: Union Bank, Polaris, Zenith Bank, United Bank of Africa, and Jaiz Bank. The CVFF would serve as an intervention fund for developing indigenous shipping capacity in Nigeria to maintain existing vessels or purchase new ones. Looking at the policy framework, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), upon recommendation from the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) and the Federal Ministry of Transportation, would ensure the transfer of the funds to the primary lending institutions once the fund reaches a $50m threshold. The initiative would be complemented by the Nigerian Seafarers Development Programme (NSDP), which aims to improve the sector’s human capacity. While noting that the initiatives would help to internalize value in Nigeria’s Blue economy, Analysts believe that the government needs to ensure capacity building amongst domestic ship repair organizations and facility managers to improve domestic value retention.
Nigeria faces a K-Curve Growth Outlook
In a recently released report titled Nigeria Development Update December 2022, the World Bank stated that Nigeria stands at a critical juncture with an important choice to make. In a three-track projection of the country’s GDP per capita by 2030, the Multilateral organization believes that in the ‘rising to potential scenario’, the country’s GDP per capita would rise to $8000 from around $5000 in 2020, while in the ‘Business-as-usual’ scenario, the GDP per capita would rise to $6000. In the final scenario, ‘the things fall apart scenario’, GDP per capita declines to lower than $4000. These reflect macroeconomic instability and policy unpredictability which have characterized the country’s economic management in the past decade. Reechoing the view of many analysts, the World Bank report asserts that oil dominance of government revenue and foreign earnings have affected the sustainability of capital spending and the trajectory of growth. This has been made worse by the decoupling of the country’s revenue from oil prices on account of lower crude oil production and a regressive petrol subsidy. With Nigeria’s risk premium increasing and government borrowing cost rising, the World Bank believes the government must eliminate the petrol subsidy and raise VAT and excise rates. Analysts however believe that as an alternative to introducing new anti-growth taxes the government should consider the financialization of the country’s many idle public assets.
Oil and Gas
Nigeria Records a Seven-Month High in Crude Oil Production
In line with analysts’ prognosis, the latest oil production data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed that the country’s crude oil production increased to a seven-month high on storming efforts to curb oil theft. Analysts noted that the recovery of flows in some terminals, including Forcados, Bonny, and Escravos terminals, among others and the surveillance project of the NNPC Ltd are propelling the output growth. Crude oil output increased by +16.87% to 1.185mb/d in November from 1.014mb/d in October 2022, while total condensates increased by +5.84% to 228,000b/d in November. Total production, including blended and unblended condensates, increased by +14.93% to 1.414mb/d in November from 1.230mb/d in October 2022. Analysts expect further improvement in December oil production figures.
Nigeria Retakes Position as Largest Oil Producer in Africa
Nigeria has also regained its position as the largest crude oil producer in Africa, producing 1.186mb/d ahead of Algeria’s 1.021mb/d and Angola’s 1.088mb/d in November 2022. Using secondary sources data, the December 2022 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows Nigeria’s oil output increased by 92,000 b/d from 1.066mb/d in Oct to 1.158mb/d in Nov 2022, surpassing production from all other African OPEC. The report indicates that Angola and Algeria had produced more crude oil than Nigeria for months on dwindling Nigeria’s output. Analysts maintained that Nigeria’s oil production would remain supported by the recovery of flows through the Trans-Forcados and Trans-Niger Pipeline Systems, albeit dependent on continuous surveillance by the NNPC Ltd and its private security partners.
NLNG Gas Supply Gap Results in Missed Opportunities for Gas Value Chain
The Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas Limited (NLNG) has disclosed a 37.5% year-to-date gas delivery deficit out of its 3.5bn cubic feet (BCF) of gas requirement from its 22m tons per annum 6-trains. The supply gap, valued at about 1.3bcf of gas, has adversely affected the company’s domestic and export gas delivery obligations. According to the Deputy MD of the company, Olalekan Ogunleye, Nigeria has missed many opportunities across the gas value chains on inadequate gas feedstocks and production shortfalls. Analysts noted that the gas delivery gap of the NLNG reflects a constraint to the country’s energy transition fuel and the weakness of the transition efforts. This gap particularly points to the shutdown of the country’s main pipeline arteries and wells producing associated gas for the key operators. However, analysts expect the recovery in production at key fields to spur feedstock growth for the NLNG and increase export volumes for the country in the near term.
Operators and Economists Build Consensus on Starting Oil Market Deregulation
At a virtual press workshop to discuss the downstream oil supply chain, oil marketers outlined issues that must require resolution to address the local energy crisis and mitigate further shocks. Marketers were unanimous on the need to resolve issues like the monopoly of NNPC Limited on fuel import and the need to promote healthy competition by granting marketers access to FX at official rates for fuel import. Other issues of concern are the public disclosure of subsidy funding by NNPC Ltd and the commencement of dialogue on the deregulation process. Theoretically, a viable option to avoid a reoccurring energy crisis and increase efficiency in the downstream oil industry is to deregulate the petrol market fully. Market operators and analysts agreed that the extended subsidy period had diminished the country’s capacity to withstand any sharp distortion to fuel pricing. Thus, marketers called for the commencement of the price deregulation process to reduce inefficient subsidies. At the same time, analysts specifically recommended higher petrol prices as part of the phase deregulation into the scheduled timeline.
Stakeholders See Temporary Respite in Local Fuel Market
As a temporary measure to ease lingering Nigerian fuel scarcity, the National President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Okoronkwo, confirmed that the Association’s members had begun daily loading of 350 trucks directly from the NNPC Limited. The action is expected to lower petrol prices to regulated rates and increase supply. Analysts note that the distortions within the industry go beyond distribution lapses. For sustainability and efficiency, the sector must be fully deregulated. But in the near term, port charges should be denominated in naira, not dollars. Aside from fostering ease of doing business, it would reduce the pressure on the naira against the dollar.
Analysts Survey: Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Candidates and the Prospect Full Implementation of PIA
With temporary measures to resolve fuel scarcity in the bag, market operators and analysts have agreed that a sustainable solution to the industry’s many challenges is to fully implement the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 (“PIA” or the “Act”). The implementation of the Act would include the complete deregulation of the local oil market. Analysts believe the full implementation of the Act has been shifted to the incoming administration, threatening the implementation of the Act.
Netizens have expressed different opinions about the presidential candidates likely to fully implement the Act’s provisions. A Twitter survey shows that 62.9% of the respondents believe Peter Obi has the highest probability of fully implementing the PIA. In comparison, 22.9% believe Bola Tinubu is more likely to fully implement the Act. Over 11% of the respondents opted for Atiku Abubakar, while 3% rooted for Rabiu Kwankwaso. While Social Media’s popularity may have influenced the poll’s outcome, analysts’ review of the candidates’ manifestos supports the survey’s outcome.
Energy Researchers Note that Renewables will Become the Biggest Source of Electricity by 2027
Globally, renewable Energy will account for about 40% of global electricity output by 2027 while the share of coal, natural gas, and petroleum oil shrinks. This is according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Renewables 2022 Report. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the associated global energy crisis have propelled major economies’ faster adoption of renewables to secure energy security. The series of sanctions on the Kremlin, the biggest supplier of oil and gas to the EU pre-invasion, has moderated the global market for both natural gas and petroleum oil. Although the worldwide energy transition temporarily halted the rally for coal, the recent energy crisis seems to uphold the prominent position of coal for the present and the future. Similarly, against analysts’ expectations, the Fukushima Daiichi Disaster failed to significantly lower the proportion of nuclear Energy as it will retain a little less than 10% of global electricity production in the medium-term future. Analysts expect natural gas to remain Nigeria’s dominant electricity source in the domestic electricity market.
Oil Prices Post Record Weekly Gain
Oil prices surged on disruption at a key pipeline supplying the US earlier in the week. Additional influences included Russia’s threat to cut oil production and China’s demand recovery. Towards the end of the week, a surprise increase in US crude inventories and interest rate hikes bucked analysts’ expectations, resulting in a weakening demand outlook. Analysts expect the market to remain volatile on uncertainty about Russian supply and global demand outlook. Domestically, analysts expect fuel scarcity to ease in the coming days as market stakeholders collaborate to improve supply.
Brent had a weekly growth of 2.29% (see Table 1).
Gold declined by 0.95% and Silver declined by 2.55% W-o-W (see Table 1).
Cocoa prices declined by 0.92% W-o-W.
Corn prices advanced by 1.00% W-o-W and Sugar prices grew by 1.88% (see Table 1 below).
Table 1: Commodity Prices
|Commodity||16-Dec-22||09-Dec-22||31-Dec-21||Weekly Chg||YTD Chg|
*Data for the 16th of December 2022 is as of 05: 25 pm (Nigerian Time)
Local Farmers Express Optimism on Dry Season Farming
Following the flooding that destroyed several farms in Nigeria, Nigerian farmers have taken the initiative to take up dry season farming to mitigate the losses inquired during the rainy season. While the planting of wheat has started in some states in Nigeria, yam prices have crashed by almost 70%, dropping from about N200,000 for 100 tubers of kwariya yam to N70,000 as the new yam hits the market in Niger state.
Katsina State is not left out, as many tomato farmers have decided to plant along the riverbed in their various villages, citing that the damage done by the flood has now presented an opportunity to them. With production affected by the high cost of fertilizer, water pump machines, and other inputs, the water from the riverbed or dams would help wet the farms during the dry season. In contrast, Taraba rice farmers have enjoyed support from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)/ Value Chain Development Programme (VCDP), which distributed farm inputs to farmers in Taraba state to cushion the effects of the flood.
Generally, Tomato takes between 60 – 100 days before harvesting. Still, rice takes about 120 days before harvesting, which points to the possibility of food prices dropping in the second quarter of the new year but high fuel costs along with the high cost of inputs threaten to keep food prices elevated.
Extreme Weather Conditions Scorch Yemen’s Economy
In 2022, Yemen experienced two weather extremes, from extreme drought to flooding, which devastated the Yemeni agricultural sector. These conditions destroy crops and move explosive remnants of war to agricultural areas. According to the International Committee of The Red Cross (ICRC), approximately 19m people in Yemen cannot meet their daily food needs countrywide to 16.2m last year. The committee also claimed that water scarcity across Yemen, exacerbated by the protracted conflict and several years of droughts, has limited access to safe water for 17.8m people, forcing an increasing number of farmers to abandon their profession.
The Naira fell to its lowest this week at both windows. Naira dropped to N451.5/US$1 at the Investor and Exporter FX fixing (I&E), a weekly depreciation of -1.12%. At the NAFEX fixing, naira settled at N449.40/US$1 on Thursday, a weekly depreciation of -1.05% (see table 2 below).
Table 2: Naira/Dollar at the I&E FX Window and NAFEX Market
|Average Benchmark Yields|
The NTB and Bond primary auction squeezed liquidity this week, making the interbank rate stay elevated. On Friday, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) rate and Overnight rate (O/N) dropped to 9.63% and 10.57% with support from the N85bn SLF inflow on Thursday improving liquidity. The rate declined week-on-week by -29.35% and -25.19% respectively (see table 3 below).
Table 3: Money Market
|Money Market Rate|
The funding rates should increase next week in expectation of significant outflows
Treasury Bills Market
The buying sentiment persisted at the Nigerian Treasury bill market this week, pushing the yields down to 8.24% on Friday, a weekly fall of -2.60%.
The OMO bill’s yield stayed flat for most trading sessions this week. The average benchmark yield decreased slightly by -0.19% to 10.73% on Friday (See table 4 below).
Table 4: Treasury Bills Market
|Average Benchmark Yields|
|T. Bills (%)||8.46||8.24||-2.60%|
|OMO Bills (%)||10.75||10.73||-0.19%|
The buying interest should wane next week
Nigerian Treasury Bill Primary Auction
NTB Primary Auction saw the Debt Management Office (DMO) sell N13.58bn worth of bills which was the exact amount offered. High demand pulled down the stop rates across all bill market tenors, with the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day declining by 99bps, 70bps, and 316bps to 5.5%, 7.3%, and 9.89%, respectively. Bond Analysts noticed that the 364-day yield fell from double-digit figures seen over the last few months, indicating strong investor demand (see table 5 below).
Table 5: Nigerian Treasury Bills Auction Result
|Nigerian Treasury Bills Auction|
|Tenor||Amount offered (N’bn)||Total subscription (N’bn)||Amount sold
|Previous rate (%)
Source: Commercio paper
FGN Bond Market
Despite the inflation figures released Mid-week, the bond market retained its buying sentiments. The average benchmark yield dropped to 13.68%, a week-on-week decline of -4.94% (See table 6 below).
Table 6: FGN Bonds Market
|Average Benchmark Yields|
We expect yields to rise in the coming week as liquidity weakens
December FGN Bond Primary Auction
The oversubscription at the FGN bond primary auction yesterday caused an early settlement than the specified date. Investors bought a total of N264.5bn as against the N225bn offered. The oversubscription was skewed in 2032 and 2037 maturities, while the 2029 tenor had an under subscription. The large demand made the rates drop across the tenors; the 2029,2032, and 2037 declined by 15bps, 45bps, and 40bps to 14.60%, 14.75%, and 15.80% compared to the previous auction (see table 7 below).
Table 7: Nigerian Bond Auction Result Auction
|Nigerian Bond Auction|
|Tenor||Amount offered (N’bn)||Total subscription (N’bn)||Amount sold
|Previous Stop Rate (%)|
Source: Debt Management Office (DMO)
Nigeria’s Total Debt Stocks Rose to N44.06trn in Q3 2022
According to DMO, Nigeria’s total debt stock has increased to N44.06trn as of September 2022 from N38.00trn in September 2021. The total external debt accounted for N17.15trn, and the total domestic debt was N26.92trn against N15.57trn and N22.43trn in September 2021. Quarterly, debt stock rose by +2.85% from N42.84trn in Q2 2022 to N44.06trn as the country acquired N1.22trn debts between July and September. Also, the country spent N820.59bn on domestic debt servicing, and US$801.23m was spent on external servicing in Q3 2022. The World Bank recently commented that the country’s debt stock might be considered sustainable now but is vulnerable and costly. Thus, the bank projected that debt servicing might gulp 100.2% of the government revenue in 2022 and 123.4% in 2023, eventually squeezing the non-interest spending. The government urgently needs to explore other revenue-generating opportunities to reduce borrowing to avoid higher debt servicing costs.
NGX – Listed Equities
- The Nigerian bourse ended the week on a positive note as market sentiment turned positive. The NGXASI closed the week with a gain of 89% as against a 1.51% gain recorded last week. The Nigerian Exchange recorded N236.58bn gain in naira terms.
- Year-to-date, the NGXASI maintained its positive position to close the week with a gain of +15.45% as market capitalization settled at N26.861trn.
- Sectoral performance across sectors was broadly positive WoW. At the close of trading on Friday, fifteen (15) sectors closed positive WoW while two (2) sectors closed negative WoW. NGX INDUSTRIAL topped the gainer’s chart with a gain of +3.44% WoWwhile the NGX GROWTH Index topped the loser’s chart with a loss of -0.52% WoW (see chart 1 below).
Chart1: Movement of NGXASI Index Points 1ST DEC. 2022 – 16TH DEC. 2022
NASD OTC Exchange – Unlisted Equities
The NASD OTC Security Index (NSI) and Market Capitalization closed the trading week on a negative note. The NSI and Market capitalization closed the week at 708.32 points and 930.74 with a decrease of -0.28% respectively (see table 8 below).
Table 8 : NASD W-o-W Change
|MKT Capitalization (Bn)||933.35||930.74||-0.28%|
|Value Traded (000)||3,232,754.50||9,170,319.00||183.67%|
Dangote And Elumelu Index
Dangote Index closed the week negative at 136.66 index points from 136.87 index points recorded the previous week, representing an decrease of -0.15% W-o-W. NASCON closed the week positive with 4.31% W-o-W while DANGSUGAR closed the week negative with -4.32% W-o-W while DANCEM closed the week flat (see table 9 below).
Table 9: Dangote Index W-o-W Change
Furthermore, the Elumelu Index closed negative at 111.47 index points from 112.32 index points recorded the previous week, representing a decrease of -0.76% W-o-W. UBCAP closed the week positive with 1.89% while TRANSCORP, UBA and AFRIPRUD closed the week negative with -2.56%, -1.35% and -1.79% respectively while TRANSCOHOT closed the week flat W-o-W (see table 10 below).
Table 10: Elumelu Index W-o-W Change
We expect a bearish market in the coming week as investors will look to sell offs in preparation for the festive season